Ryan Suter - Not Worth The Hype
The same two guys have been on our mind for the past few months. Ryan Suter and Zach Parise. Suter and Parise. These are the golden tickets this summer. If we don’t get at least one of those two, puppies will be kicked. Kittens thrown. And turtles flipped. Kenny, think of the turtles.
Now, you don’t have to convince me on Parise. Not only has he lead his team to the Cup final, he’s also a multiple 40 goal scorer and is the definition of clutch (ask Canada). He’s a rich man’s Jonathan Toews. I see shades of Yzerman in him; you know, the kind of leader that Detroit loves.
Plus, I’ve hit on his girlfriend. True story.
Anyways, Parise, yes. But Suter? Well, color me not convinced. I think there’s a serious chance someone is going to horribly overpay for him and I hope it’s not Detroit.
Hit the jump for more on why I think he's horribly overrated.
Now, admittedly, I’ve not studied the guy. But whenever I’ve watched Suter play, I’ve seen a great #2 defenseman, not the great #1 guy that everyone talks about.
Against Detroit, Shea Weber absolutely dominated. He Prongered the Wings by scoring killer goals, hitting everyone in sight, and literally bullying the Wings the entire round. It’s the first defenseman since, well, Pronger that I thought outplayed Lidstrom in a matchup. Maybe the only other one, ever.
But Suter? Barely noticed him. He appeared to be to Weber as Robin was to Batman. Or put another way, he was Lidstrom’s Rafalski. Sure, he didn’t play horribly, but sure didn’t look like a gamechanger. More of a tag-along.
His stat sheet for the series against Detroit backed up my feelings; he finished with 5 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 Pts, 2 PIM, 0 +/-. Not exactly impressive. His career numbers, while good, also aren’t that impressive.
He averages in high 30s, lower 40s, points per season. That’s slightly better than Ian White, but not even close to Rafalski levels.
He’s not a hitter either. He only put up 46 official hits this past season. For comparison, Weber put up 177 hits. Mike Fisher put up 116. Ian White put up 49. Point made.
So what exactly is so special about Suter? I'm not sure. I’m even more worried that his decent point totals are a result of playing with Weber, similar to how Lidstrom made Rafalski almost hit 60 points multiple times. Without Weber is he a 25 point guy?
Parise is worth the asking price and maybe more. Suter? No.
Maybe I’m missing something. Others think so. I hope so, because I don’t want Detroit to get caught up in the hype and pay superstar prices for what certainly appears to be a #2 defenseman to both my eye and the stat sheet.
Still, in Kenny we trust.
Parise has only scored 40 goals once in his NHL career. And that was 3 years ago. He is unlikely to ever do so again.
It's kind of funny, if you go to CapGeek.com and look at the UFA this summer, the vast majority of them are D men. Kind of "just what the doctor ordered" in a summer where we lost 2 of our top 4 D men. Personally, I would overpay for Suter (not crazy overpay but overpay none the less) because he's only 27. I would also go for Matt Carle and Barret Jackman.
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I agree with Buffalo's GM who said something along the lines of:
The next year's free agent crop always looks better, but then the season starts and a lot of those guys get re-signed before they ever make it to free agency.
What happens if we pass on Suter, hoard our money, then find out Weber wants $11 million per year?
Yes, Weber has his best playoff series ever against us because up to that point the Red Wings were his kryptonite and he finally decided to push back. Well, his team was out in round two and his penchant for being physical without being smart bit him in the ass more than once in that series.
Suter and Parise are hoping to play for the same team. They are good friends and want a chance to play together other than just the Olympics. So hopefully they would take a little less money and come to Detroit where there points will be higher playing with more and better talent.
That's what I think. Like twig wrote, he did have only 3 points less then weber. And he might be a little better on d then weber was which is good for me when we have kronwall and white already. And I agree jordan, I'd go with parise 1st but I think that possibility is getting further as the finals go on, way further then the possibility of suter
That's what I think. Like twig wrote, he did have only 3 points less then weber. And he might be a little better on d then weber was which is good for me when we have kronwall and white already. And I agree jordan, I'd go with parise 1st but I think that possibility is getting further as the finals go on, way further then the possibility of suter
Brian you make a good point maybe it's him not playing with Weber won't be so bad since he will be playing with more overall talent
46 points for Suter. How much are you willing to pay for those 46 points? The Wings would be foolish to pay him what they paid Lidstrom (a fixture for 20 years) it would be a slap in the face. Suter is no where near the level of play that Lidstrom showed the league for 20 years
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@Robert1103 You can't compare an in-demand free agent in 2012 to a guy who spent 20 years with the team and gave them hometown discounts for every single year after the lockout.
On the open market Lidstrom has been worth league max since there has been a league max. Suter is not worth what Lidstrom was WORTH, but he is absolutely worth at least what Lidstrom was PAID.
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@Robert1103 Lidstrom had 34 points this year for the Wings. So if you are so fixated on points and Suter's 46 points only equates to $4.0M, then Lidstrom should have only received the proportional $2.95M this year, right?
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@Robert1103 i am willing to pay 8 million dollars in small unmarked bills. i really don't think lidstrom would be offended, either.
Suters level of play 46 points withstanding is not worth anything near 8 million. He might be worth 4 and that might be high. The point is Suters level of play does not come close to that of Lidstrom which translates to you can not pay him more than you paid Lidstrom because it is a business you don't want to overpay which is why I suggest a trade not free agency.
@Robert1103 what #1 d-man do you want to trade for? keep in mind, when you trade forwards for defensemen, you now need to sign a forward.
@Twig @Robert1103 It is a business - the players all know that. Sure you might have upset a guy like Fedorov for paying another player more, but there is no way Lidstrom would ever take it that way. When the free agency is as bare as it is this year, guys are going to get over-paid for. Remember Kovalchuk?
Which is why I would immediately trade Nash before he could ever wear the sweater. Don't have any idea what NHL12 is.
Here's one for you...trade Fanzen and perhaps a prospect for Rick Nash and then trade Nash for a ligit #1 D'man. You folks need to think outside the box if you are looking for the Wings to make positive changes over the summer.
@Robert1103 columbus' asking price is way too high for Nash. they wouldn't take franzen and a prospect. they want an entire line plus picks. Nash will never wear the winged-wheel. ever.
@Twig @Robert1103 I think if we were to trade anyone, it would be Quincey and Franzen. Whatever team we sent them to would guarantee Franzen for a serious amount of time, while they would have the opportunity to sign Quincey to a decent contract. He is still an RFA so he would have to go to arbitration to get more than the team really thinks he deserves.
The point is this...why is everyone so focused on Suter and his free agent status. My opinion is he is not a #1 or #2 defenseman. Why do you feel Suter is the answer? Why would you spend huge dollars for a #3? The Wings have plenty of pieces that could be traded for a ligit #1 D'man
@Robert1103 No, the Wings od NOT have "plenty of pieces" unless you want them trading a handful of assets and picks and roster players for that #1 defenseman.
Oh, and who exactly do you think is willing to trade a legit #1 defenseman away?
Ok we all know Kronwall is going to be the #1 guy next year. Suter would be perfect to play with him - it would be like the Kronwall-Stuart pairing but much better offensively, and about the same (if not better) defensively.
TORONTO, MAYBE COLORADO OR EVEN PHILADELPHIA. THEY PUT UP WITH ERIC LINDROS WHO OLY PLAYED WHEN HE WANTED TO.
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I don't know enough to have my own opinion, but most of what I hear is that it is the other way around... that Suter's presence has a positive impact on Weber, and that when Suter leaves, Weber will be exposed.
@moorecha @awould Sorry, nothing more to say. Just regurgitating some opinions I've read on other blogs since "Suter watch" started a year ago. Not sure if it is true or not. Weber impressed me in the series against Detroit, Suter less so. But I think the point about Suter is that he's a low-profile player and you don't notice him because he's doing everything right.
Franzen can be traded for a REAL #1 defenseman. FRANZEN only plays when he feels like it.
@Robert1103 the problem with that is, EVERYONE knows that. Good luck finding a GM that will trade a "REAL" defenseman for a guy that only plays when he wants to
Suter is not worth Lidstrom or Kronwall dollars, he might not even be worth Ian White dollars. Dennis Wideman can replace Brad Stuart. Wideman is worth Brad Stuart money.
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apparently weber's shadow is big enough to hide suter's skills from a lot of people. trust me, if the wings get him, he'll be our best d-man.
@stupidgoalie Don't worry. You're still pretty. It's not a shot at contrarianism; it's a shot at fishing for compliments.
I think the scouting report on Suter is that he just quietly does his job and does every aspect of it well, hence the comparisons by some to Lidstrom. He isn't as good as a prime Lidstrom. He isn't going to score 20 goals a season. He isn't going to smash people through the boards. BUT, he will consistently do his job. He will make the smart play. He will lead by example.
On to his likely getting overpaid, yes. He will get overpaid. But given the way the new NHL is in regard to free agents, that is just the way things are. Free Agents are not cheap because demand far exceeds supply. Take into account that his is a well-respected, young top-pair defenseman, and he will get paid more than he is probably worth. We have the money, and I hope we get him. Not getting him will, to me, say that our defense is going to drop off enough that we won't contend. There aren't any other good options, so he is basically our primary path to success in the next 5 years- bottom line.
I COMPLETELY AGREE! I really hope we don't break the bank like everyone is saying we will this summer. I say we "take it on the chin" (and I'd bet we'd still make the playoffs) and hold onto that money for next year's much, much stronger UFA crop. I am seriously, seriously hoping we don't overpay for Parise either (like anything more than 5 years and over 7mil). I don't see Suter as anyone close to leading a Detroit defense.
I'm (maybe too wishfully) hoping we get Semin for under 3 years at or under 4mil and a guy like Matt Carle. Then maybe a trade for some defense prospects or something. I don't know, but I just cringe at Detroit getting into a bidding war for Suter or Parise in the opening hours of the free agency market.
My sentiments as well. I hate to admit this but when all of this Suter talk started I was kind of like... who? Now, I did know who he was but it took me a bit to remember. He plays in the shadows of Weber.
I am a HUGE fan of going after Weber next year. Ya'll can cry about what he did to Zetterburg all you want... that is the kind of grit Detroit has been lacking. We can't win on skill alone any longer. You have to have something the that 1990's Wing's had... intensity.
Perfect world:
Parise- more important to get than the others...This should be Kenny's holy grail.
Suter- To help Weber shade away from Nashville
Weber- Two years from now
I would be more than happy if Kenny put us right at the cap limit and got rid of a few other players to fit them, so long as you bring in some young, energy laden players to fill their spots.
My fear is that we see a typical Red Wing's summer where "big changes" mean a top 6 forward, #3 D-man, and a new sponsor. I have accepted the fact that the era of the dynasty is over. It is time to build a new dynasty.
His offensive stats are "not even close to Rafalski?" They're actually not far off of Rafalski's stats were before he was paired with the best defenseman of his generation.
"Point made."
I guess it depends what point you were trying to make.
He only put up 46 hits? Great, Lidstrom put up 41. Since when are we judging defensemen on hits?
And lastly, he may not be as good offensively as Rafalski or as physical as Kronwall but he is is an excellent all-around defenseman who can play in every situation.
Oh, and his poor offensive numbers last year would put him #1 amond Detroit defensemen by a 10-point margin.
"Parise is worth the asking price and maybe more. Suter? No."
Odd thing to say when we don't know what his asking price IS.But either way, he's the best defenseman on the market, so it doesn't matter if he's "worth" the asking price.I guess the question is, would you be more or less comfortable giving $6-7M for Suter or giving just slightly less to, say, Matt Carle?
@garth I'm not saying he's not pretty good, or very good even. I'm just saying we are all pumping this guy's tires as if he's a savior, and I don't think he is that. He's a very good defenseman, but not an elite one from what I can tell.
@moorecha Ok, but the reason everyone is pumping his tires is that he's the only legit top pairing defenseman on the market (if he makes it to the market). He's the only guy who, by signing him, you have legitimately filled the vacant spot of "top pairing defenseman".
This year we haven't just lost our #1 defenseman and a second pairing defenseman, but we've also seen White's stock drop the second he was no longer "the guy who pairs with Lidstrom".
Sure, Suter is not Nicklas Lidstrom 2.0 but he is absolutely the closest thing there is available.
@garth And as far as the comparison to Raffy, I might tone down the language a bit, but Raffy offensively is a step higher than Suter, even during the dead puck era. I do think Suter might be a step better defensively though. Overall, however, I think Rafalksi is a good comparison for Suter's overall skill.
@moorecha OK, so you're saying he's not worth the hype that you've implied present. All I've read is that he is, bar none, the best defenseman available on the UFA market. I've not read any hype saying he's the second coming of Lidstrom, only that he's the best, which is what Detroit needs. They were able to not panic when filling Rafalski's role because they had Lidstrom around still. They don't have that luxury anymore. They can't just grab Dennis Wideman and say "Yep, we've addressed that, let's move on." They need a legit top pairing defenseman who can help other defensemen, not someone who needs to play with a better defenseman in order to be effective.And not being what so many people hope (as you say) is different from being "worth the hype". He's the best defenseman available and he's being hyped as the best defenseman available. Sounds like he's worth the hype to me.
@garth I don't think I disagree with anything said here. He's certainly the best on the market. I just don't think he's going to be what so many hope.
@moorecha Rafalski's average is actually 44, but even ten points isn't a huge difference when you consider that Suter is a better all-around defenseman.
I'm also at a loss as to why you're even comparing Suter to Rafalski. You don't compare a young player to a retired guy who is ten years older, you compare him to his contemporaries, and I would defy you to find someone better than Suter to fit the needs we have now. If Suter comes to Detroit he is automatically our best offensive defenseman as well as being sm excellent defensive player who can play in all situations.
Would anyone maybe rather have Weber? Sure, maybe, but in order to get him you're going to have to offer him $10M to even make Nashville consider not matching the offer and if they don't match it then he's not only costing $10M but also FOUR first round picks.
Seriously. We lost a top pairing defenseman and, noting that there's obviously no replacement for Nicklas Lidstrom, who other than Suter is a bonafide top-pairing defenseman who will be available?
Is a saviour? No, of course not, there is not such thing. But is he absolutely the best option? You're damn right he is.
@garth Eh, even if you ignore their rookie year (which helps Suter), Suter has averaged 37 points over the other six years in Nashville. Rafalski averaged 47 during his time in NJ, including mostly years in the deadpuck era. I'd say that's a significant difference.
@moorecha The fact of the matter, though , is that Rafalski's pre-Lidstrom numbers aren't a lot better than Suter's.
