There's No Defending Holland - He Blew It With Weber
So the Weber offer sheet wasn't just a $100 dollar offer sheet, it was actually $110, and expertly crafted so it makes it so it is nearly impossible that Nashville can match, unless they find some serious money in those Nashville couch cushions. Let's look at some highlights of this deal, thanks to Deadspin:
This deal is frontloaded, like all the other massive deals signed in recent years. .... $14 million a year for the first four years, $12 million each of the next two, $6 million in years seven through ten, then wee little payouts of $3M, $1M, $1M, and $1M.
Signing bonuses. Weber will actually only make $1M in salary each of his first four seasons. But he'll receive $52 million in signing bonuses over those four years, and $68 million over his first six. And signing bonuses cannot be touched by any proposed salary rollbacks. True, guaranteed money.
The signing bonuses also mean Nashville has almost no chance of matching the offer. They could match, and try to trade Weber to get something for him. But...they'd have to keep him for a full year before attempting to move him, and pay him $27 million for just that one season.
Emphasis mine there. 27 million is what the Preds will have to pay for Weber to play next year. Can they afford this? This is very reminiscent, yet more genius than the idea I wrote about not too long ago, where I stated that Kenny should try the following:Make a one year offer to Weber for something ridiculous, a number he can't refuse. Say $11 or 12 million, just for next year. Maybe more. This puts a lot of pressure on Nashville. Can they afford $12 million on one player?
And, even if Nashville can match, think of it this way: this sets Weber up for UFA next season and the Wings are no worse off compared to where they started.
Hit the jump for my counterpoint to those defending Holland, including Winging It In Motown:
Others are not so quick to jump on Holland. J.J., over at Winging It In Motown, has a rebuttal to us naysayers. I want you to tell me, in nanoseconds, how long it would take David Poile to match this offer sheet if it came from Detroit.
Sure there might be a tiny bit more motivation for Nashville to sign if it was Detroit, but it'd be similar to the anger you'd have if I called you stupid before punching you in the face. If you hit me back, it wouldn't be back I called you stupid, it'd be because I broke your jaw with a right hook. In deciding whether to match, the fact that Detroit is in the same division is completely secondary to the fact that Nashville simply might not have enough money to do so.
J.J. has one other argument that I'd like to address:
So, let's assume that Ken Holland gave Shea Weber the same 14-year deal that Holmgren so bravely offered. Here's what Ken Holland loses if the Preds match:
- Shea Weber's services
- Every restful night's sleep knowing that he signed the captain of a division rival to a 14-year deal for them.
So instead of taking a chance of actually signing him because he doesn't want Nashville to be able to match, he let another team do exactly that. That doesn't seem to make a lot of sense to me.
The one thing that Polie probably is not going to do? Trade Weber to Detroit, for all the reasons that JJ said. But, this is exactly what Kenny was trying to do. Which of course, even if he was successful, would help Nashville out as well by the loads of players we would have gave them. I'd be fine with that, but it'd be no different than dealing with him through the RFA way, other than it is more honorable.
Simply put, I think Kenny blew it again by sitting on his ass. Whether it was offering one year for a crap ton of money like I suggested or thinking of this 14 year "masterpiece," he could have retained the title as the best GM in the league with a move like this. But he's been out-GM'ed all summer, first by Risebrough, Yzerman, and this time by Holmgren.
This has not been the summer of Ken as we'd hoped.
Boy golly, it sure would have been nice if Ken Holland had signed Shea Weber to the offer sheet that made him a Predator for 14 years. There was, oh I don't know, at LEAST a 30% chance they weren't going to match this.
This article tells me two things... 1.) Things happen behind the scenes that we will never know about and 2.) We are way too quick to judge....
"The Wings coveted Weber, and called his agent as soon as free agency began on July 1 to ask what Weber was going to do."
I think we need to all take a step back and start waiting for ALL the facts to come out before we start publicly rebuking someone. This doesn't tell us that Kenny would have given him an offer sheet but at least this tells us he was being proactive about doing something. And I find it very hard to believe he was just trying to trade for the guy considering we all know what Nashville would have demanded.
"The Wings eventually met with Weber and presented reasons why he’d be a great fit in Detroit. They were told Wednesday night Weber had decided to sign with Philadelphia."
Does that sound like someone who was just "sitting on his ass?" Let's start giving our GM (who's accomplished a thing or two in this league) the benefit of the doubt that he's trying to make our team better. Maybe, just maybe, Weber didn't want to play here (gasp!). Would you want to go to a division rival and get booed like crazy 6 times a year (or however many times we play them in Nashville). To me, this reminds me of trying to find out if a girl is interested in going to the prom with you and just as you think she is, she decides to go with someone else. Maybe you waited too long or maybe she never wanted to go with you to begin with and had someone else in mind all along. Only Weber knows...and the girl. (Not speaking from experience or anything) :*(
We also don't know whether if Holland had tendered a similar offer that Weber would've turned him down.
The lesson you learn from that girl is that if you don't ask you don't get. Took me years to figure that one out.
I'm in two minds about this. I wonder how committed Holland would've appeared to be to Weber (or his agent) since he doesn't seem to be committing 100% towards anything, which may turn out to work out.
But on the other hand it's possible that Nashville would do anything to stop Weber remaining in the division, though I find it hard to believe that they will try any harder to stop him going to one team over another, if theres anything they can do to stop him leaving they will do it regardless of where he's headed if they don't. GMs are more pragmatic than fans and I bet they don't harbour the same resentments as we do, it's their job to do what's best for their team, not uphold the status quo of fan rivalries. Unless you're Scott Howson (Joke GM of the year)
Anyone saying that Holland hasn't steered us wrong yet is forgetting that he's had Lidstrom, Yzerman or both for his entire tenure, how difficult has his job been so far really compared to that of GMs who've had to rebulild? He hasn't ever needed to make such bold rebuild moves. Now he seems to have missed an opportunity to make some bold moves when he really needed to. Time will tell but I feel like he has let it slip through his fingers a few times this offseason.
Keep the faith though, try to keep the faith.
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1. Lets make sure we get an NHL season next year with little Gary's latest witchcraft. 2. Chill the F out on Holland. I have a hard time believeing that Holland just woke up one day and forgot how to be the GM of the greatest hockey franchise ever. If it was best for the team, Kenny would do it. Its not like he wants us to be mediocre. He didnt turn in his Red Wings library card. Yeah this offseason hasnt been the way I wanted it to see it go either, but damn let's give him the benefit of the doubt before we throw the guy who brought stanley home to us (over, and over, and over, and over again) under the bus. This is not Nam, this is NHL. There are rules. Holland is still the guy I want running my franchise, he doesnt want to see a losing product on the ice any more than you or I.
So, Holland was negotiating to trade for Weber when Holmgren signed Weber to an offer sheet, thereby all but guaranteeing that Weber is locked in longterm with Nashville and somehow Holland is wrong?
Seriously, anyone who thinks that Holland should've done this is a fucking idiot.
"So instead of taking a chance of actually signing him because he doesn't want Nashville to be able to match, he let another team do exactly that."
Either way the result would be Weber NOT playing for Detroit, so what's fucking wrong with that?
"The issue here is going to be is can they afford the TWENTY SEVEN MILLION dollars in that first year."
Yes, of course they can. Poile has been saying that they're willing to spend to the cap and currently they are THIRTEEN MILLION dollars under the cap. If you think that Nashville isn't going to match this then you're stupid.
@garth Garth seriously quit the swearing and aggression, pretty much all of your posts are aggressive and insulting towards another comment. Just chill out and make your points in a reasonable way.
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"anyone who thinks that Holland should've done this is a fucking idiot."
"what's fucking wrong with that?"
"If you think that Nashville isn't going to match this then you're stupid."lulz I love the way your keyboard compliments your attitudes towards people. It's adorable.
Seriously, everyone chill out! Not getting Weber is not the end of the world, I'm not convinced Holland is F-ing up and no one is stupid or a f-ing idiot for disagreeing. And remember, winning solves everything. And I think we'll rack up a decent amount of wins this year. As long as Jimmy's healthy and we can minimize the shots against, we'll be okay.
I doubt money will be an issue. No Suter to pay. Besides their ticket sales will tank if they don't keep him.
Your Blog is the shit. BTW. I love it. I'm not sold Holland blew it, BUT, I'm wondering what they are doing in the front office for sure.
Fair enough. That was Chris (and so is this) btw. We can't always agree can we Jeff Monahan?
Whoever wrote that headline - and article - is an idiot. There could be a thousand reasons why Holland couldn't get him to sign but you're telling me he "blew it?" Last time I read your blog, buddy.
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I find it hard to believe that Holland was so naive as to think Nashville would trade Weber to the Wings. He JUST went through this with Nash.
The cap hit and dollar amount is probably a little low for one of the 3 best defensemen in the league. Losing 4 first rounders isn't a big deal when you're picking from the bottom of the first, considering what you're getting in return.
I am stunned at how poor of an approach and plan Holland has had this offseason, but when you really think about it, he's had the franchise in neutral since he let Hossa walk.
@AnthonyC If Poile wasn't going to trade Weber to Detroit (which isn't correct, since it's confirmed there were discussions with Detroit) then why would he not match an offer Detroit made?
@garth @AnthonyC Detroit also talked to Columbus about Nash. Just because Detroit talked to Nashville doesn't mean that they'd trade with the Wings. I'd find that very hard to believe they'd be willing to see Weber 6 times a year.
Thats beside the point. The way the contract is supposedly front-loaded means that Nashville would have to take on an enormous financial burden in the near-term to keep Weber. Teams like Nashville can't afford that kind of cash, or at least that is what Philly is hoping.
One of the big advantages that the WIngs have over most teams is that they DO have the ability to do something like what Philly did. The cap hit Philly is going to be paying is totally reasonable, and even a good deal. They just have to be able to absorb the huge up-front payment.
Whether or not he was trying to trade for Weber or seriously considering an offer sheet to Weber, Holland got punked by Philly, plain and simple. He's had the worst summer possible. The only player they signed of consequence has no NHL track record, and Babcock found him, anyways.
I keep thinking kenny has an ace up his sleeve, things like this are making me doubt him more and more, I know we still have a solid core, but with a couple major holes to fill is he gonna make an attempt to make anything happen, our only acquisition on the blue line this summer was Quincey at 7.55 over 2 years..... Sigh..
"27 million is what the Preds will have to pay for Weber to play next year."
That is ONLY if they decide to trade him next summer... and why would they?
@JJfromKansas Agreed, but they will to pay that and that's a shit load of money. Does Nashville have that? I dunno...but it's going to be interesting to find out. Would be more interesting if we were the ones waiting to find out if he was coming here.
@JJfromKansas BTW, not attacking your opinion, just giving a counterpoint. I'm not happy how this played out.
@moorecha @JJfromKansas Im honestly surprised Kenny hasn't offered Semin a 2 year, $10 million contract yet. Or at least thats what *I* would offer if I were calling the shots haha
@moorecha @JJfromKansas You're out of your mind if you think there's only a 60/40 change of them matching. They already lost one of their two best players and you think they're going to let the other one walk with nothing in return except "maybe one of these picks will be an OK player in 5-7 years"?
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@moorecha @JJfromKansasGreat, so the way to try to get him to play for Detroit is to sign him to an offer that essentially guarantees that he will never play for Detroit?Because Nashville will match it, and then do you think that they'll ever consider trading Weber to the GM who forced their hand? OF COURSE NOT!
@JJfromKansas Fair enough, but I'd say there's a 0% chance that happens w/o giving up one of Datsyuk or Zetterberg or every one of our prospects.
@moorecha If you told me there was a 30% chance of Detroit signing Weber to this contract or ending up with the Predators for 14 years, my choice would still be to want Holland to try and trade for his rights.
@JJfromKansas Fair enough, I disagree both with what is more important and the chance that they will match = 98%. Right now, I'd give it 60/40 they will match. If it was Detroit, I'd give it 70/30 at most.
@moorecha I'd be much more interested in the chance that he leaves the conference than taking a gamble on a 98% chance we signed him to a division rival.
@JJfromKansas Maybe, but I really could care less honestly if he plays in the division. We see them six times per year. I'd be much more interested in having a chance of seeing him play for Detroit than worrying of who he's playing with. I simply disagree where he plays is a huge issue.
@moorecha No, because being the Red Wings GM that signed Shea Weber to the deal that made him a Predator for 14 years is monumentally stupid. You can't say that anybody knew this was going to happen so it may as well have been Holland.
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@JJfromKansas Point is, I'm sick of us being second. We've yet to offer the most money for anyone, or even do anything out of the ordinary. We've been second on Suter / out of running on Parise / second on Carle & Salo. We've been in the mix for everyone, but haven't really be convincing to anyone. You know who were going to miss out on as well? Doan and Semin And by then, that will be it for the open market.
@JJfromKansas Well, someone was going to do it. Rather it have been us to give us at least a chance.
@moorecha "So instead of taking a chance of actually signing him because he doesn't want Nashville to be able to match, he let another team do exactly that. That doesn't seem to make a lot of sense to me. "
Because signing Shea Weber to the contract that made him a Predator for the next decade-and-a-half is the worst thing a Red Wings GM could do.
I completely disagree. I side a lot more with JJ's opinion that he went with the money in the event the CBA changes. There's no way Nashville lets us have him for 1 year. I also sort of think that Weber doesn't want to come to Detroit. He can sign any offer from any team. He chose Philly. We should just move on and get over the fact that we were left sitting while someone else was preferred. This deal with Weber is going to tie someone up for a long, long time.
@Josh Howard Personally, I don't want Weber for 14 years. He is a great player now, and will be for the next couple of years. But with his style of play, his body will give out before the contract does.
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@Josh Howard Agreed Nashville wouldn't let him come here for one year. But after that he's free to go.
@Josh Howard And you have no idea that Weber doesn't want to come to Detroit. He could sign with any team true, but I'm pretty sure that Detroit wasn't make RFA offers, so that automatically ensures he's not going to sign with us.
@moorecha It's not a cap thing, it's the amount of liquidity the franchise may or may not have in the future.
@Josh Howard Maybe, but I really could care less honestly if he plays in the division. We see them six times per year. I'd be much more interested in having a chance of seeing him play for Detroit than worrying of who he's playing with.
@Josh Howard 8 million a year isn't crushing them as far as salary cap goes. But the only good thing is that there is a possibility he leaves. Or stays forever.
@moorecha This is where it gets kinda silly... we really don't know what he was given or who offered what. Holland says he doesn't, but who knows. I'm somewhat disappointed that we didn't get him, but this ends up being a great scenario for us in the end. He's out of Nashville or he crushes the Nashville franchise with his demands.
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I absolutely agree. Why would you try to trade assets for a player that is available for a contract offer? So that White, Quincy, and Smith can y to fill the void left by Raffi, Stuie, and Nick? So that Mr. I can sit on 16 million in Cap space? Because an offer sheet "isn't Kenny's style?" Bull. TickTock missed a golden opportunity. -AppState.
I'm not convinced they will match. They'd be foolish not to. But, that's a ton of money, and I'm not sure they can afford it without sacrificing the future? Wings can afford it. It makes you wonder y we didn't throw an offer sheet at him. I really do like Holland, but our free agent plans seem to have fallen to the wayside? I have faith inn our team, but I'm just very puzzled?!!?
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You guys are forgetting that Holland doesn't make offers to RFA. He just doesn't do it. What are you surprised at this? He's clearly sticking to his values.
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@marti783 His values just lost us a chance at a top player. He needs to be honorable to the players, he doesn't owe shit to other GMs.
@magnum9 @JJfromKansas @moorecha @marti783 You can't possibly try and compare Weber to Lidstrom
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@JJfromKansas @moorecha @marti783
No, more like going after some guys girlfriend. If she says "no" she is going back home with the guy she walked in with.
In fact its exactly like that.
"Just because there is a goalie doesn't mean you can't score".
@JJfromKansas @moorecha @marti783
Since when did a top 5 D-man in the league become an STD?
We had one that just retired. I don't remember him being shunned...
