The Young Kids Are Killing It – Part 1 of a Statistical Look at the Wings

I love stats.  I think they’re very interesting and can clue you into things that you might not realize simply by watching the game.

Of course, unlike some idiots that have a blog over at KuklasKorner that’s as interesting as hearing an actuary’s life story, I know that stats don’t tell the whole tale.  But they can certainly clue us into things that we might not notice or back up feelings that we might have. 

So let’s take a look at Detroit using advanced stats over at behindthenet.ca.  Get ready, because it reveals some interesting stuff.

Everyone’s probably heard of Corsi, but if you haven’t Corsi is essentially a plus-minus statistic that measures shot attempts.  You get a point for a shot attempt at the opponents net, but lose one if the opponent attempts a shot.  This can give you an idea of possession of the puck without that pesky save-percentage stat getting in the way (as it does in +/-).  This of course is not an end all be all of stats, but it’s interesting.  To get a little more insight, I wanted to look at the Relative Corsi Number, which equals the Corsi Number of player per/60 minutes - Corsi Number of Team when player not on ice per 60/minutes.  So a player with a 5 Corsi Relative number is saying that for every 60 minutes that that player plays 5 on 5 versus every 60 minutes that he doesn't play, the team will be better off by a net 5 shots attempted. 

So let’s look at the best players on Detroit during 5 on 5 play.

We can all agree that Tatar and Andersson have looked good during their call-up with the Wings, but now we have the stats to back it up.    That’s an amazing difference – 32.8 more shots per game if Andersson was on the ice.  Now remember, this doesn’t take into account the fact that they are playing against the third and fourth lines (in fact, the quality of competition that Andersson and Tatar has faced was the easiest on the team) and Datysuk isn’t, but still, that means that they are dominating during their time on ice. 

Hit the jump for more of a look on who's dominating and failing. 

Kindl being included is also impressive.  I actually have thought he’s been solid all year outside of some terrible penalties.   And bonus to Datsyuk for still be included despite playing against the best.  You just can’t stop him.

Who’s been the worst on Detroit? Some familiar faces. 

I think Emmerton’s done better lately, but I’ve always maintained that he was a replaceable NHL’er at best.  I can never understand how he keeps a lineup position.    And everyone’s been happy with Miller, especially Babcock, but I’ve never understood why. He has some offensive talent, but he’s slow and a bit of a liability on defense and isn’t a grinder.  Tootoo is also on the list, but he’s talent is more than just offensive and defensive production, so I give him a pass here. 

Lashoff, Franzen and Kronwall are included on this list, but that’s because they’ve played against the best players.  Now, that isn’t an excuse, but Lashoff playing on the #1 pairing is over his head and its showing.  Unfortunately, that might be true for Kronwall as well (at least defensively). 

Finally, Corsi doesn’t take into account quality of scoring chances, nor actual goals, so let’s glance at +/- per 60 minutes as well.   Here’s the best:

Speaking of the worst, here they are:

And finally, Abdelkader.  Second worst on the team, despite playing with Datysuk for the past week (he previously was the worst forward regarding corsi stats until he moved up to Datsyuk’s line).  I have no idea why the team is so high on the curly haired paleface, but Babcock clearly has a halfie for him despite the fact that he’s a grinding forward who isn’t that fast, barely grinds, a crap fighter and has bricks for hands. 

So what have we learned?  Well, Kindl has been playing great, so have Tatar and Andersson.  Lashoff is a decent player, but is playing over his head so far talentwise.  Miller is getting outplayed bad and Abdelkader barely deserves a position on team, let alone the second line. 

I’ll have another post regarding special teams here soon.  For now, your thoughts? 

11 comments

 

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ghoulie11 5pts

I'm not exactly sure if I like the way this figures out points. For starters it only takes into account shots for and against. I doesn't take into account pass %, goals for/against, quality scoring chances, any defensive play at all, hits, puck possession, or really anything else that has to do with hockey. For instance, when Kindle plays, he usually is paired with Huskins. Not to mention that a lot of these people are playing for only a handful of minutes a night, and usually not on the penalty kill. That last batch with the +/- is all penalty kill.

moorecha moderator 5pts

 @ghoulie11 No, this is only measuring 5v5, no PP or PK.  

 

And it does take into defensive play & puck possession.  You have thepuck and play great defense, you won't get a minus.  

ghoulie11 5pts

I'm not trying to take any praise away from our young guys. They have been taking advantage of their ice time and have been a huge part in most of our wins. But I don't like this system because it's inherently flawed, the numbers are based solely on shots. I'm sure you'll agree that it wouldn't be a good idea to create lines using only a player's Corsi.

moorecha moderator 5pts

 @ghoulie11 In the end, for 99% of the players, +/- is all that really matters. Its just that +/- isn't big enough of a sample size, so that's where corsi and other stats come in.  

moorecha moderator 5pts

 @ghoulie11 Completely agree. But I think it is an interesting stat when combined with +/-. 

ThroatShot 5pts

These stats are only repeating what we've already known from anecdotal evidence- our young guys who are being habitually repressed are exceeding expectations and some of the guys who seem to be "safe" are more underwhelming than ever. Bert has missed so many games, especially when the team was slumping, so I don't put much weight in his stats.

Josh Howard 5pts

If the corsi number is based upon shots vs shots against... isn't that number sort of flawed? For instance, Tootoo and Miller are not guys that shoot a ton.  Neither is Abdelkader.  Lashoff is certainly NOT an offensive defenseman.  A great example of this is Kindl also leading in +/- per 60... sure he has good stats... but he's also played against FAR weaker competition than say Lashoff.  I don't think it's bad to look at these stats, but I need to take them with a grain of salt.

ThroatShot 5pts

 @Josh Howard I don't think a perfect, single statistic is possible. Bottom line.

Josh Howard 5pts

I should say, that isn't to say there are guys on each list that live up to their Corsi.... there totally are.  But, it doesn't tell the whole story when comparing players to the competition they are iced against or even what type of player they are.  I look forward to seeing the next installment of this.

moorecha moderator 5pts

 @Josh Howard Totally agree its not perfect, nor does it tell the whole story, but they shouldn't be losing badly to similar competitoin.  Plus, that's why I gave it context of +/-, which, in the end, is the whole story. 

Sabrina Darbonne 5pts

I've been extremely disappointed with Abby this year. Then again, I've felt that way about him for some time.....